UK economy: in double-dip recession or zigzag recovery?

26, Apr 2012

Yesterday, amid pelting rain and dark skies, the news came through that the UK had entered a double-dip recession for the first time since the 1970s. But despite the economic clouds, there were some silver linings.

The breaking news of a 0.2% contraction in the economy in the first three months of 2012 came through on our FD Intelligence Twitter – and it was interesting to see some positives from financial media and business groups amid the reaction. Here is a quick flavour of what was said:

@altmandaniel: Surely we are all Keynesians *now* #UKrecession #austerity

@bbcbreaking: PM David Cameron says UK double-dip recession is “disappointing” but he will stick to his plans for growth. #PMQs live

@larmistead (reporting from the IoD annual convention): Clegg came on stage to ‘Dont Stop Believing’ and told biz leaders not to v ‘panicked reaction’ to GDP figs

@FinancialTimes: Get set for one of the shortest recessions on record, argues DeAnne Julius: on.ft.com/IaPQqI #gdp #ukeconomy

@edconwaysky: Osborne to @skynews “We experienced deepest recession & financial crisis in history. Difficult, difficult situation when u have these debts”

 

@londonchamber UK economy contracts by 0.2% in Q1 however our survey of London businesses found that they are more confident about the future ^RW

 

What do you think?

Are we heading for a ‘double-rise’ or zigzag recovery (or whatever the optimist’s version of a double-dip recession might be)? The Guardian certainly reports a bumpy ride on its UK recession-recovery-recession timeline.

Is this a temporary blip, perhaps caused by poor construction industry figures, as reported by the BBC?

Will we emerge with positive GDP figures in Q3, as the FT suggests? Or is this the start of a deeper, more long-lasting downturn for the UK?

Back here in the office, as for many of our clients, the main story is still all about growth – where to find it and how to maximise the opportunities for it. So let us end with five upbeat links of our own:

• Four senior business leaders whose companies have beaten the market reveal their keys to future UK growth.

• Entering China: opportunities, structure and strategy – part of our Breaking into BRICs series.

• Social media audits for business growth

• Grow global: a route to success – our dedicated report site all about maximising the international opportunity

* Three tech experts on where they’d place their bets if given £20 million to invest in keeping ahead of the tech market

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