Press Room
ONS retail sales statistics reflect declining consumer
confidence in run up to Christmas
If you are writing on today's ONS Retail Sales statistics,
please consider the following comment from David Bush, Head of
Grant Thornton's Retail Services Team
The volume of retail sales in the three months to October was
2.2% higher than the same period a year ago which is the slowest
growth in retail sales since April 2006. "This month's figures are
not a surprise. The ONS statistics largely reflect the mood on the
high street. It is more important to see how retailers will cope
over the crucial next five weeks in the run up to Christmas," says
David Bush, Head of Retail Services, Grant Thornton.
"Whilst the ONS statistics show that between September and
October, total sales volumes decreased by 0.1% this is actually a
worse result than at first appears because October is traditionally
the month when significant shopping for Christmas begins.
This result therefore implies that the lift-off has simply not
begun yet as shoppers hold back, possibly to see if they even have
a job in the short term."
"Despite the overall gloom however, online sales have yet again
performed particularly well with a 13.6% increase in non-store
retailing sales volumes in the three months to October compared to
the same period a year ago . For example, ASOS' interim results for
the seven weeks to the middle of November showed a 104% jump in
sales year on year. This can be explained by the fact that shoppers
are being less impulsive and also looking online for bargains
rather than going to the high street."
"We are now just five weeks away from Christmas and it is
unclear what retailers can realistically do to boost flagging sales
in the face of sagging consumer confidence. The significant Bank of
England interest rate cut of 1.5% announced earlier in the month
will take a while to impact shoppers' spending habits whilst the
fear of rising unemployment is likely to be a more significant
short term deterrent as far as spending on Christmas is concerned,"
ends Bush.